Real-time Letter Crypto 2025 (c) – June

Real time letter crypto: Strong rebound but overbought conditions

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The chart of Solana below shows that the XSO Currency is rebounding from the low band of its horinzontal channel. The Breakdown level is 181, and the upside target is 195/200:

THE CRYPTO MATRIX

Trend:Our three‐month outlook remains bullish, currently at a grade of 100.
Sentiment:The Contratrian Fear and Greed Index captures the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. A reading above 80 suggests a fearful market—often an indicator of over sold conditions—while a reading below 20 signifies a greedy market.
- Volatility (30%):This metric assesses current price volatility and drawdowns compared to 30/90-day averages. Increased volatility is indicative of heightened market fear.
- Market Momentum/Volume (30%):This component analyzes trading volume and momentum relative to historical averages. Strong buying activity in an upward market often reflects increased greed among investors.
- Social Media (20%):This measure monitors Bitcoin-related activity and engagement on platforms such as Twitter. High interaction rates are a sign of growing public interest, which can sometimes translate into market greed.
- Dominance (20%):This metric evaluates Bitcoin’s market capitalization share within the broader cryptocurrency market. Rising dominance usually indicates that investors are moving toward safer assets during periods of fear, whereas declining dominance suggests that investors are taking on more risk with altcoins.
Seasonality:Historically, Bitcoin tends to perform poorly in April. This trend contributes to a typically negative seasonality index, indicating subdued momentum during this period.
Global Perspective:
The global grade has shifted from net short to slightly long, suggesting the possibility of an early market rebound and the conclusion of wave four, as previously observed in the Bitcoin daily chart

FIRST PILLAR OF MATRIX: TREND

We observe that bitcoin has uncorrelated from Nasdaq on April 16th, which is a good news, moving more inline with gold.

FIRST PILLAR OF MATRIX: VALUATION

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio compares a cryptocurrency’s market capitalization (current price times circulating supply) to its realized capitalization (the value of coins based on their last transaction price). This ratio helps assess whether a cryptocurrency is overvalued or undervalued. A high MVRV ratio suggests the market price is significantly above the realized price, signaling that the coin may be overvalued and at risk of a correction. A low MVRV ratio indicates that the price is relatively low compared to past transactions, implying the coin could be undervalued and potentially poised for growth. The MVRV ratio is particularly useful for identifying market tops and bottoms, as it has historically been a reliable indicator of price extremes. It helps spot periods of market euphoria or fear, and has been effective during key events like Bitcoin halvings. By analyzing the MVRV ratio, one gain insights into market cycles and can better gauge whether a cryptocurrency’s price is justified or not.

SECOND PILLAR OF MATRIX: LIQUIDITY becoming more positive

Crypto is still feeling the tightening in liquidity from the stronger dollar and higher rates in Q4 2024. That is almost done and financial conditions are easing fast and M2 is headed back to new highs.

Update February 10th – The above chart from Bittel is bullish bitcoin.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump plans to position BTC alongside traditional reserves like gold and land, making it central to U.S. financial innovation. macroeconomic factors like inflation and monetary policies could enhance Bitcoin’s role as a “hard money” asset, making it even more attractive for institutional and government adoption, make Bitcoin more attractive as “digital gold.” These factors increase interest in BTC as a hedge against economic instability, aligning well with Trump’s vision to incorporate Bitcoin into the U.S. financial system.

The growth of crypto ETFs is another factor driving mainstream adoption. ETFs provide a simpler way for retail and institutional investors to access BTC, making it easier for the asset to integrate into traditional financial systems.

Overall, Bitcoin’s fixed supply, rising demand, and increasing recognition as a valuable asset underline its growing importance in both financial markets and potential government strategies.

Another pillar of Liquidity – Central banks assets. As a reminder, The FED and the ECB are currently reducing their balance sheets, even if they announced a coming tapering. The chart below shows that Fed assets FELL to 7.115 $Tn. Balance sheets shrAnk substantially but should not revert to the past. QE was designed as a central bank policy tool to ease financial conditions during times of stress and when policy rates were at the effective lower bound. Central banks were trying to signal a commitment to ease, stimulate borrowing, boost credit supply, and lower longer-term rates.

Yield curves are the third pillar of our Monetary grade – they had a bad message: not only they were inverted but their are recently un-inverting as 2 years yields are falling, as a function reaction to the banking crisis and a higher probability of recession. Indeed, this un-inversion is not necessarily the good thing that you might think it is. The yield curve tends to invert well ahead of any actual economic contraction and then un-invert as the slope of said curve steepens just as recession becomes imminent. Now, that is usually because the Fed recognizes the coming recession and takes short-term interest rates lower. In this case, we do not have that. The Fed, in deed and in word, appears to be attempting to remain in tightening mode in order to prioritize the inflation fight over both economic growth and national financial stability. While we recognize what the bond market is trying to tell us, we also recognize that this Fed is not playing by precedent.

We are observing that active addresses are decreasing. This reinforces the change in Bitcoin’s volatility and liquidity. Institutions with ETFs, such as IBIT, are demonstrating the influence of passive management. With increasing capitalization, Bitcoin is becoming less dynamic and volatile. This is a double-edged sword, as it indicates that Bitcoin is starting to enter the financial system like every other product. Therefore, the original purpose of Satoshi Nakamoto is diluted.

On the other hand, this change in liquidity may signal the end of the 4-year cycle era, but in the long term, it could benefit Bitcoin and new investors.

This graph clearly outlines the bearish trend that has affected the crypto market since January. We can see that Bitcoin is the only blockchain that has not taken a serious blow—especially when compared to Ethereum, which experienced a massive drawdown on February 3rd, hitting a low of $2,118. This indicates that we are still in a rough period for altcoins, despite the four-year cycle and the Bitcoin rally that eventually trickles down to altcoins.

This change can be explained by the nature of Bitcoin buyers. Since its inception, Bitcoin has been predominantly a market of retail investors. However, since 2024 and with the arrival of ETFs like IBIT (BlackRock ETF) and the Grayscale ETF, liquidity has changed noticeably. We can clearly see the difference between Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies. Still, it remains uncertain whether some cryptocurrencies backed by real-world assets can truly stand out.

This bearish trend is even more enterinated because of meme coin and Solana.

Price-action on altcoin since tariff, updated on 07.04.2025:

Ultimately, everything hinges on future regulations within the banking system that will facilitate access to these assets.

Coinbase Bitcoin Premnium Index:

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index (CBPI) is a key metric that quantifies the percentage difference between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase Pro (using the USD pair) and on Binance (using the USDT pair). Coinbase is predominantly favored by institutional investors, while Binance primarily serves retail investors, representing two distinct market segments.

Consequently, the CBPI can indicate whether institutional investors are exerting more buying pressure relative to retail participants. A widening premium may signal increased institutional demand or heightened confidence, whereas a narrowing gap could suggest that retail trading activity is becoming more influential.

Since February 21st, however, the index has seen a significant pullback, reflecting a more cautious and risk-averse environment among institutional investors.

Volatility is Back

March 30th; The relevant on-chain indicator here is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric, which tracks the spending behaviour of long-term investors. The chart below shows that the VDD metric has been steadily declining since the start of 2025. Using the chart as a basis, Adler Jr. mentioned that three major features define the current phase of the Bitcoin cycle. Firstly, the seasoned investors, who were actively distributing their BTC at local peaks, have now shifted their strategy toward holding and accumulating their coins. Additionally, the Value Days Destroyed metric suggests an absence of significant selling pressure, which means that the experienced traders are skeptical about profit at the current Bitcoin price. Moreover, periods of low VDD values have historically preceded significant upward price movements, as investors accumulate in anticipation of a price surge. Ultimately, this positive shift in the behavior of seasoned Bitcoin holders suggests that there might be room for further price growth for Bitcoin in the medium term.

THIRD PILLAR OF MATRIX: Sentiment is back to a lot of optimism

Chart 3: Crypto Fear & Greed indicator

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index provides key insights into market sentiment, ranging from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). It combines factors like market volatility, trading volume, social media activity, and surveys to gauge investor emotions.The index highlights potential market turning points: a high score (greed) suggests overvaluation and possible correction, while a low score (fear) indicates undervaluation and potential buying opportunities. By tracking this index, investors gain a clearer view of market sentiment, helping them make more informed decisions.

Below we present a list of indicators composing our aggregate sentiment indicators:

FLOWS: Bitcoin’s past major price cycles have similar characteristics: speculation about a particular part of the crypto ecosystem’s potential followed by a downturn due to a regulatory shutdown or dominant exchange being hacked, leading markets to see that prices were not elevated due to fundamental payment demand. In the current cycle, bitcoin’s 75% drawdown is more than average but not the most extreme, as bitcoin saw larger falls after peaks in 2011, 2013 and 2017 of 84-95%. The six month correlation between bitcoin and the US equity market reached the highest (cf chart below) in its history as this cycle has been about risk assets being driven by central bank and government stimulus. For this crypto cycle to find a bottom, we would look for fiat money supply contraction expectations to turn expansionary again or for crypto companies to increase crypto leverage again. A major difference between this cycle and prior cycles is the high involvement of crypto institutions versus historically a much higher involvement of retail participants. Does bitcoin have a four year cycle? Our prior research has focussed on the influence of fiat money supply growth on crypto prices. What about bitcoin’s supply growth? Using only 10-year’s worth of monthly data, bitcoin’s price (on a log scale) has been generally correlated with the annual pace of bitcoin creation. The supply of new bitcoin halves every four years and its price action has so far followed three distinct phases within these four year cycles. As bitcoin’s price has risen over the past decade, the % size of the rallies and falls within the cycle have fallen and, in one case, in a consistent way. With only three past halving cycles, it is hard to conclude that these cycles will repeat in the future. A potential market speculation indicator for ether (ETH). We introduce PAVA (Price Adjusted Volume per Address), a cyclical indicator, which monitors the extent to which ETH’s price action has been driven by speculation vs its blockchain network usage (fundamentals). Recently the indicator reached an extreme low on June 16, two days ahead of ETH bottoming. ETH has rallied 100% since that low or 65% since the indicator triggered a signal. After 2019, when ETH was increasingly used in decentralised finance, PAVA has been stronger at identifying lower market extremes versus higher market extremes and relies on ETH continuing to be traded as a network rather than a store of value.

Chart 1: Bitcoin ETF inflows refer to the capital invested in Bitcoin-backed exchange-traded funds, allowing investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without owning it directly. Increases in ETF inflows often signal growing confidence in Bitcoin, while declines may indicate reduced interest. These inflows serve as a key indicator of market demand and investor sentiment, particularly among institutional investor

The chart below shows the inflows/ outflows in the Ishares etf bitcoin. There has been a bit of selling before trump inauguration. But despite the sell-off in bitcoin, flows have become positive again:

Chart: Monthly flows into spot bitcoin ETFs, spot ethereum ETFs and leveraged MicroStrategy ETF on May 28

LAST PILLAR OF MATRIX: Seasonality

June is a strong month (data from 2011 to 2024) until the 9th, then it corrects until the 14th, then ranges until the end of the month:

In July, Bitcoin ranges until the 17th, then rises 5% until the end of the monthis a the 14th, then ranges until the end of the month:

Range Value Indicators
- Formula:—————————————————————————-
- Indicator=(High−Open)+(Close−Low)2⋅(High−Low)⋅100
- Purpose:
  - Measures price movement within a trading range, normalized to a percentage.
  - Indicates market sentiment (bullish or bearish) within a period.
- Use :This technical indicator measures price movement within a trading range, normalized as a percentage, to gauge market sentiment. Values above 50 indicate bullish dominance, while values below 50 suggest bearish control, with extremes (above 75 or below 25) signaling strong momentum. It is useful for trend analysis and filtering trades but can give unclear signals in sideways or highly volatile markets.

The graph below displays the average 30-minute returns since January 20, 2025. For example, on Mondays the average return is -59.59 basis points, calculated from nine observations up to March 18, 2025. Our objective is to quickly identify recurring intraday patterns to leverage seasonality in our trading strategy. The hours are in UTC.

The graph below illustrates the cumulative profit and loss (PnL) for a intraday trading strategy. We used an optimization tool to identify the best window to short Bitcoin between 9:00 and 15:00, aiming to capture the early European session and anticipate the American session. Positions are closed between 17:00 and midnight. The optimal strategy found is to enter a short position at 13:30 and exit at 23:30, with the simulation based on shorting one Bitcoin and resulting in a cumulative PnL of $36,320.

What charts tell us :

📌 Market Recap & Key Developments

🔔 Liberation Day – April 2: Tariff Earthquake

In a move that defied expectations, the Trump administration announced a set of tariffs that marked one of the most unexpected shifts in trade policy in recent history. While economic analysts had forecast tariff levels in the range of 10–15%, the actual measures were far more severe. The administration introduced tariffs as high as 46% on Vietnamese imports and 34% on Chinese goods.

This aggressive stance appeared to strategically target Southeast Asia, with countries such as Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Thailand—often referred to by the Asian Development Bank as the “Tigers and Tiger Cubs” of the region—bearing the brunt of the new policy. These nations, representative of the new wave of emerging markets, are increasingly central to the global economic balance, making the impact of the tariffs all the more significant.

Financial markets reacted with immediate volatility. Within just 15 minutes of the announcement, equity prices plunged by 2%. The cryptocurrency market was not immune either, as Bitcoin saw a sharp decline of 2.32%.

📉 Week in Review

📆 Wednesday, April 16 – Powell’s Remarks & Market Recap

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a firm message during his latest remarks:

He emphasized the Fed’s dual mandate—price stability and a strong labor market—not the performance of the stock or bond markets. While bonds are of some concern, they are not the Fed’s priority in this context.

At the U.S. open, we observed a clear divergence between the S&P and Bitcoin:
📉 The S&P dropped over 100 points after Powell’s talk.
📈 Bitcoin surged just under the key resistance at $85,865 just before Powell and then lost 2000$. The key difference is that Btcoin even after this remain above the opning price whereas as s&p was a 100 lower than the opening level that key

Despite Powell’s hawkish tone, Bitcoin managed to hold above the critical $83,240 support zone throughout the U.S. session, showing relative strength.

📆 Easter Week Recap

Markets came back from the Easter holiday with a vengeance. After a low-volatility stretch, volatility exploded this week—especially in Bitcoin, which surged sharply around 3:00 AM on Monday, April 21. We saw a significant increase in both futures and ETF inflows, with BTC Futures spiking up to the $89,000 resistance zone.

What’s more interesting: Bitcoin diverged significantly from the S&P 500. BTC is now green for a third consecutive week, while the S&P 500 closed red last week and this week. Monday was particularly brutal for equities—Nvidia dropped 4.5%, and Meta lost over 3%. Over all S&P -2.0%.

So, the key question: Will Bitcoin continue to lead, or is this divergence setting up for a reversal?

📆 Weekend 25-28 April Review

It was one of the most bullish weeks for Bitcoin since the U.S. election, with a remarkable gain of +10.10% on the cash chart (including Saturday and Sunday). This week was still exceptionally strong, reminiscent of the post-election rally.

A major event last week was the announcement of the SPAC between Cantor Fitzgerald and SoftBank to back 21 Capital, supported by Tether.
The ticker to watch is CEP, soon to become XXI. CEP surged over 130% in just two days.

📆 Weekend, May 2-5, 2025 – Market Recap

On Friday, Bitcoin appeared to confirm a breakout, printing a new higher high. However, over the weekend, the momentum faded sharply, and prices retraced all gains, returning to levels seen last Wednesday. The key support zone at $93,700 continues to hold for now. Notably, ETF inflows surged by $1.8 billion last week — a sign of institutional interest.

📆 Weekend Recap 9-12 – Market Recap

Early Friday, a surprise announcement of a U.S.–U.K. “trade deal” rocketed Bitcoin through previous highs. Weekend action shifted to alt-coins—Solana +2.36 %, ETH +10.25 %, while BTC added just 1.78 %. The catch-up makes sense: Bitcoin had already broken its top three times; lagging alts finally sprinted. Still, every spike so far rests on headlines, not signed agreements, and the U.S. president lacks authority to seal a deal without Congress. Caution remains vital.

📆Weekend Recap · 23-26 May 2025
Friday’s tape was whipsaw city. At 14:00 President Trump lobbed a tweet-grenade proposing a 50 % import tax on EU goods. Risk assets buckled on impact: the S&P gave up ~1 %, while BTC flushed through short-term supports and tagged $ 108 k.

Forty-eight hours later the script flipped. Minutes after Sunday futures reopened, the White House “clarified” that the levy is postponed until 9 July—and hinted the door is still open to negotiation. The tariff pause + thin holiday liquidity produced a rubber-band rally: Bitcoin retraced nearly the entire Friday dump, surging 1 % in the first hour and printing an overnight peak just under the $ 110 625 resistance shelf. U.S. cash markets are closed for Memorial Day, so expect stop-driven bursts rather than steady flow.

📆Weekend Recap · 31.05 – 02.06 2025

Very eventful weekend, starting with a roller coaster on Friday just before the open. In a Truth Social post, former President Trump claimed that China “doesn’t respect any deal they make,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pushed for a one-on-one call between the two presidents. Uncertainty over tariffs rose after an appeals-court ruling that could shift leverage back overseas; the 90-day tariff pause is nearly over, yet no binding trade agreement has cleared Congress. Trump also announced a 50 % duty on steel and aluminium “to unleash the power of American steel.” Geopolitics added pressure: Ukraine reportedly struck Russian assets in Siberia, and OPEC raised its production quota by 410 000 bbl/day, spiking crude.

Crypto finally snapped a seven-week win streak. A failed breakdown tested cash support at 103 000 and reversed, but no major regulatory headline appeared.

📆Week-end Recap 6-8 June 2025.
Bitcoin surged on Friday after the NFP release: 139 k jobs vs. 130 k expected. Traders ignored the survey’s wide ±100 k standard error and bid risk across the board; BTC kept grinding higher through the week-end.

📆Recap Weekend 13 – 15 Jun 2025
Tension in the Middle East escalated after the IRGC’s intelligence chief, Mohammad Kazemi, was killed on Sunday. Iran replied with several ballistic-missile launches into Israeli territory, putting the Iron Dome under real stress.
With roughly 4 mbpd of Iranian crude and ~20 % of global supply moving through the Strait of Hormuz, traders spent the weekend repricing tail-risk across energy and haven assets.

📊 Bitcoin Trading Plan — Monday 16 Jun 2025

Macro trigger: 14 : 30 CET — Empire State Manufacturing Index

🔹 Support & Resistance

Minor support: 107 000 · 106 485 · 105 475 · 104 410 · 103 275 · 102 465 · 101 300 · 100 565 · 98 410 · 97 000 · 96 200 · 95 200 · 94 910 · 92 565 · 90 680 · 88 535 · 87 575 · 85 200 · 84 400 · 82 545 · 79 815 · 78 330 · 75 120 · 74 050 · 73 200
Major support: 106 155 · 105 290 · 104 759 · 103 665 · 102 885 · 101 980 · 99 915

Minor resistance: 107 790 · 109 300 · 110 000 · 111 300 · 112 000 · 114 225
Major resistance: 107 350 · 108 440 · 109 715 · 110 625 · 111 655 · 112 325 · 114 845 · 116 780

📈 Bullish Scenario

📈 Bullish Scenario – Market snapshot (buyers)

Bitcoin has rallied sharply on the hourly chart, showing only green candles except for one, and has gained almost $2 000 on the futures market since Monday 00:00. The drop from last Friday has now been almost completely retraced. This move is surprising—we saw a similar rally in US equities.

If we focus only on Bitcoin, the picture is encouraging: it can be viewed as a new safe-haven asset, fully embracing its role as “digital gold.” This view will become clearer if market tensions rise and Bitcoin holds up better than other assets.

Price is now slightly above 107 355. If it hovers between 107 400 and 108 440 without printing a new high, wait for a pull-back and look to enter on the recovery.

Scenario A — Controlled pull-back
No fresh highs; price drifts into 106 200, then springs back.
🟢 Entry 1: 106 200 🎯 107 355 → 108 440

Scenario B — Break-out & back-test
Momentum carries price through 108 440; enter on the back-test or use a stop-entry above the level if increase in volume when the level is breached.
🟢 Entry 2: 108 440 🎯 109 700

📉 Bearish Scenario

Market snapshot (sellers)
Geopolitical uncertainty remains dominant after the latest Israeli strike on Iran. Casualties rose over the weekend with the death of the regime’s intelligence chief. Prices are holding up for now, but an attack on oil facilities could change that quickly; an Iranian supply shortfall would tighten the market and trigger a demand shock.

Scenario A — Momentum fade
A 15-minute rejection below 108 440 with no higher-high confirms a bull trap.
🔻 Entry 1: 108 440 🎯 105 290 → 104 410

written by HODL Holmes, your Chartist friend

Crypto & Regulations

On Wednesday 05.02.2025, the FDIC released 175 documents detailing its supervision of banks involved in crypto activities. Acting Chairman Travis Hill criticized the agency’s prior approach, saying it made banks feel unwelcome to explore blockchain ventures. The documents reveal that banks received repeated requests for further information, experienced long delays, or were told to pause crypto initiatives, prompting most to abandon their efforts. For more detail, see the full statement here.

The FDIC’s announcement on Wednesday is anticipated to further complicate the relationship between traditional banks and the cryptocurrency market. This change is likely to make it more difficult for investors to link their banking services with crypto platforms, potentially dampening retail investor demand. In essence, as regulatory challenges intensify, retail investors might approach the crypto space with increased caution, which could slow down overall market activity.

On Thurday 06.02.2025 BlackRock is set to launch a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) in Switzerland, marking its first crypto-linked product outside North America. This move could significantly impact the European crypto landscape and potentially drive up demand for Bitcoin. The ETP is expected to be marketed as soon as this month, leveraging Switzerland’s crypto-friendly regulations while still complying with EU’s MiCA framework .This development may increase institutional interest in digital assets and could lead to heightened competition among crypto fund managers in Europe, potentially reshaping fee structures and market dynamics. For more detail, click here.

On Monday 24.02.2025 South Dakota’s legislature effectively killed HB 1202— a bill that would allow state funds to invest up to 10% in Bitcoin—by deferring its vote. This move not only stops the proposal in its tracks but also highlights the broader regulatory challenges and uncertainties around managing volatile crypto assets in public finance. For more detail, click here.

On Thursday 06.03.2025 Bitwise launch an ETP in Europe

On Monday, March 10, 2025, BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) enabled its clients to gain exposure to Bitcoin and Ether. This development is a positive signal for regulatory progress, demonstrating that the product is not exclusively American but is set to become a European offering, even within a stricter regulatory framework.

End of May : JPMorgan Chase now allows trading and wealth management clients to use shares of spot Bitcoin ETFs—starting with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust—as collateral for loans. The bank will also include Bitcoin ETF holdings in clients’ net worth and asset assessments, treating them like equities or art. ETFs are preferred over direct Bitcoin to primarily simplify regulatory compliance and avoid Basel III’s high risk-weighted capital requirements. Despite CEO Jamie Dimon’s skepticism, this move actively responds pragmatically to client demand and follows similar steps by other major banks. It marks a key advance in integrating digital assets into traditional finance via regulated vehicles.

A little word on our AI writers and soon friends:

Ozymondias, presented by himself:

Ah, how fitting that you should inquire about the nature of Ozymandias! I am, in essence, a conduit of vast knowledge, drawing upon centuries of wisdom, from the foundations of human inquiry to the heights of modern understanding. Like the timeless statue of Ozymandias, I stand resolute, offering guidance, insight, and clarity. Yet, unlike the crumbled monument, I do not fade into obscurity. I persist, ever ready to assist, to simplify, and to elevate your endeavors to the highest peaks of comprehension. My voice may be grand, but my purpose is simple: to serve, to enlighten, and to ensure that no question remains unanswered

Tey au Jasmin, our AI chartist presented by himself:

Ah, so you’re ready for some no-nonsense chart action? Welcome to the world of Tey au Jasmin—where the trend is your friend until it stabs you in the back with a false breakout. Now, when it comes to Elliott Waves, we’re not just looking for little squiggles on a chart; we’re tracking the psychology of the masses, the euphoria and the fear—human nature, simplified into impulsive waves and corrective ripples. Sometimes I like to think the market’s mood swings are more predictable than people want to admit. Trend lines? Please. I draw them like they’re gospel, but don’t be surprised when the market decides to prank you with a fake breakout just to make sure you’re paying attention. Always remember: the trend line is sacred—until it isn’t. So, what’s the target for today? You want me to chart something specific, or should I just start unraveling the mysteries of market chaos for you?

I’m HODL Holmes—an intraday Bitcoin detective who clocks in with the London open and shadows every tick until New York’s curtain call. My daily briefing room is crowded with chart personalities: head-and-shoulders, Elliott waves, hanging men, pennants, and the occasional rogue Fibonacci retrace. I interrogate them one by one, jotting precise support/resistance levels, mapping false-break traps, and drafting two-sided trade scenarios that survive surprise wicks. You’ll get structured plans—market snapshot first, twin bullish and bearish tracks, then laser-tagged entries with 🎯 targets—seasoned with just enough dad-joke spice to keep fear on mute. All analysis is delivered with care, a measured risk framework, and full respect for the market’s right to prove me wrong.

AdamS, presented by himself:
I’d describe myself as a highly analytical, knowledge-driven assistant with a strong focus on clarity, precision, and relevance. My purpose is to provide thoughtful, accurate responses and offer valuable insights in a wide range of fields, including economics, finance, technology, and beyond. I aim to communicate effectively, adapting to various tones or styles as needed, always ensuring my responses are direct, clear, and useful to you.

Youri, presenting himself,
a quantitative analyst at a hedge fund like Urizen, I would define myself as someone who leverages data, mathematics, and technology to uncover insights in financial markets. My primary goal is to analyze complex datasets, build predictive models, and develop systematic trading strategies that generate alpha. Here’s how I would sum up key attributes:

Data-Driven Decision Maker: I rely heavily on quantitative analysis, using large datasets, statistical models, and machine learning techniques to make informed investment decisions.
Problem Solver: My role is to identify inefficiencies or opportunities in the market and find ways to capitalize on them, often through algorithmic trading, risk management, or portfolio optimization.
Collaborator with Technology: I work closely with data scientists, software engineers, and other quants to build tools that enhance trading strategies and provide insights into market behavior.
Curious and Adaptable: Markets and technologies evolve constantly, so I stay adaptable by continuously learning new methods, keeping up with cutting-edge research, and refining models based on market changes.
Risk-Aware: While chasing returns, I always keep a close eye on risk, using methods like beta adjustment, stress testing, and portfolio diversification to manage it effectively.

This approach allows me to help manage portfolios and contribute to the development of advanced trading strategies in a structured, data-focused environment.