Letter 69, written in real time, September 2022: Market focus

Read more

Letter 68, written in real time, August 2022: Bear market is back after MA200 reached

Read more

Letter 67, written in real time, July 2022: Lower yields & Oil enable a strong bear market rally

Read more

Letter 66, written in real time, June 2022: Market focus switches from inflation to recession

Read more

Letter 65, written in real time, May 2022: Sell in May or Buy in May

Read more

Letter 64, written in real time, April 2022: Worst April ever

Read more

Letter 63, March 2022: Market focus between Charybdis and Scylla

Read more

Letter 62, written in French, February 2022: L’inflation ou le pari de Pascal

Read more

Letter 61, February 2022: markets between Charybdis (war) and Scylla (Inflation)

Read more

Letter 60, December 2021: 2021 Trades

Read more

Letter 59, December 2021: Market focus

Read more

Letter 58, November 2021: China report

Readying a long term Buy

Read more

Lettre 57, 31 Aout 2021: L’art de la tragédie

Read more

Letter 56 July 15th, 2021: Upside target reached , now what ?

Read more

Letter 55 May 18th, 2021: Das Kapital

We think the upside for equities is now limited as two major risks become reality: higher interest rates or, as we named it, “The Art of Tragedy”; and higher US corporate taxes, our new thematic dumbed “Das Kapital”. The current market reversal is already confirming the double whammy. While ultra-accommodative central bank policy has helped support stocks near record highs, these levels looked precarious given implications of higher taxes against the potential spillover benefits of spending on infrastructure. We reiterate our forecast of a negative year for US equities. A possible last spike to 4,350 could be followed by an even stronger correction in the last 4 months of the year.

Read more

Letter 54 March 1st, 2021: The Art of Tragedy

From 2013 to 2014, we named the market anxiety on the Fed tapering (reversal of quantitative easing policy) the “Art of Tragedy”. As a déjà vu concept, the Art of Tragedy is haunting investors again with the steep rise of inflation breakeven and long-term rates. This has recently put pressure on risky assets as their (very) high valuations must now incorporate the end of the extreme dovish monetary conditions.

Tragedy, a western civilization’s invention is based on human suffering that invokes in its audience (who knows that is going to end badly) an accompanying catharsis. Its rules are strict and consist in 3 unities:

(1)      Unity of Location: Washington DC, where FOMC members will meet for the much expected and feared outcomes.

(2)      Unity of Action: the tapering drama.

(3)      Unity of Time: September 22, 2021 FOMC meeting. 

Read more

Letter 53 January 20th, 2021: Dumb is the new Smart

Starting this first letter of 2021 just before the new 18:00 curfew in the French Alps, the start of the year of the Metal Ox 🐂 is weird. Sadly, covid19 Cases continuing to rise globally, but, as we said in June 2020, in the new Alice In BubbleLand environment, equities remain buoyant.

Read more