Letters in 2021, 2022, 2023 & 2024

Letter 94, written in real time, October 2024: Market focus

Letter 93, September 2024: New Rate cuts cycle and Chinese bazooka triggers a massive cyclical rebound

Letter 92, August 2024: From Growth scare (Winter is coming), to Spring (goldilocks economics)

Letter 92, July 2024: Salutary Rotation triggered by JPY increase

Letter 91, June 2024: French dissolution and 1st ECB rate cut

Letter 90, May 2024: Massive breakout in China and dovish Fed, with a reassuring lower than expected CPI

Letter 89, April 2024: First big 2024 monthly correction, higher rates despite good earnings

Letter 88, March 2024: Fed confirms breakout despite sticky inflation

Letter 87, February 2024: AI kept on delivering in February

Letter 86, January 2024: First week return drives 2024 return

Letter 85, December 2023: Buy small caps/ sell M7

Letter 84, November 2023: The FriEnD is back

Letter 83, October 2023: A third month of decline

Letter 82, September 2023: Good eco news is bad market news, but ugly september ends with a contrarian bullish CPD signal

Letter 81, August 2023: Summer correction

Letter 80, July 2023: Animal spirits are back

Letter 79, June 2023: Breakout !!!

Letter 78, May 2023: Our debt ceiling straddle lets us ride a possible breakout on equities despite all the headwinds (QT with a coming liquidity drain, valuation, stagflation, low breadth)

Letter 77, May 31st 2023: between Charybdis and Scylla

Letter 76, April 2023: choppy month with declining breadth as just a few stocks support indexes

Letter 75, March 2023: Bull market intact despite banking crisis

Letter 74, January-February 2023: Big 2023 rotation between 2022 laggards and winners

Letter 73, December 2022: No Santa Klaus this year !

Letter 72, November 2022: Bear market rally target reached… switch to mean reversion trades

Letter 71, caimans, alligators and crocodile spreads, November 2022

Letter 70, October 2022: Expectations of a coming Fed pause is driving another bear market rally towards 3930

Letter 69, written in real time, September 2022: Last leg of the bear market with the worst possible seasonality – 3575 (200 weeks MA target)

Letter 68, written in real time, August 2022: Bear market is back after MA200 reached

Letter 67, written in real time, July 2022: Lower yields & Oil enable a strong bear market rally

Letter 66, written in real time, June 2022: Market focus switches from inflation to recession

Letter 65, written in real time, May 2022: Sell in May or Buy in May

Letter 64, written in real time, April 2022: Worst April ever

Letter 63, March 2022: Market focus between Charybdis and Scylla

Letter 62, written in French, February 2022: L’inflation ou le pari de Pascal

Letter 61, February 2022: markets between Charybdis (war) and Scylla (Inflation)

Letter 60, December 2021: 2021 Trades

Letter 59, December 2021: Market focus

Letter 58, November 2021: China report

Readying a long term Buy

Lettre 57, 31 Aout 2021: L’art de la tragédie

Letter 56 July 15th, 2021: Upside target reached , now what ?

Letter 55 May 18th, 2021: Das Kapital

We think the upside for equities is now limited as two major risks become reality: higher interest rates or, as we named it, “The Art of Tragedy”; and higher US corporate taxes, our new thematic dumbed “Das Kapital”. The current market reversal is already confirming the double whammy. While ultra-accommodative central bank policy has helped support stocks near record highs, these levels looked precarious given implications of higher taxes against the potential spillover benefits of spending on infrastructure. We reiterate our forecast of a negative year for US equities. A possible last spike to 4,350 could be followed by an even stronger correction in the last 4 months of the year.

Letter 54 March 1st, 2021: The Art of Tragedy

From 2013 to 2014, we named the market anxiety on the Fed tapering (reversal of quantitative easing policy) the “Art of Tragedy”. As a déjà vu concept, the Art of Tragedy is haunting investors again with the steep rise of inflation breakeven and long-term rates. This has recently put pressure on risky assets as their (very) high valuations must now incorporate the end of the extreme dovish monetary conditions.

Tragedy, a western civilization’s invention is based on human suffering that invokes in its audience (who knows that is going to end badly) an accompanying catharsis. Its rules are strict and consist in 3 unities:

(1) Unity of Location: Washington DC, where FOMC members will meet for the much expected and feared outcomes.

(2) Unity of Action: the tapering drama.

(3) Unity of Time: September 22, 2021 FOMC meeting.

Letter 53 January 20th, 2021: Dumb is the new Smart

Starting this first letter of 2021 just before the new 18:00 curfew in the French Alps, the start of the year of the Metal Ox 🐂 is weird. Sadly, covid19 Cases continuing to rise globally, but, as we said in June 2020, in the new Alice In BubbleLand environment, equities remain buoyant.