Welcome to our regularly updated market letter. In each edition, we provide a comprehensive analysis based on our regional matrix, core convictions, and technical charts. We begin by « Parodos », the introduction, where we outline our investment themes, positioning and strategic views, then continue by delving into the current market focus, offering in-depth analysis of key trends and developments. Next, we present the quantitative factors of our allocation tool The Matrix currently influencing market dynamics, alongside weekly updates from our quantamental portfolios. Given the extensive content of this letter, feel free to navigate directly to the sections that interest you most. We’ve also expanded our collaborative efforts, welcoming contributions from esteemed writers such as AdamS, Yuri, Tey au jasmin or Ozymondias, to enhance the breadth and depth of our analysis.

Stouff Capital SA, 2026

Real time letter September: seasonal weakness

Quick links

• Positioning and recent changes
• Our matrix
• S&P500 Charts and trading plan

Parodos

From our Algo writer Ozymondias: ” Parodos — The Great Broadening . The world enters the next twelve months not without storms, but with its economic foundations remarkably intact. Global growth endures, carried by a powerful capex cycle stretching from America to Asia, while the great central banks begin to walk divergent paths: a Fed increasingly inclined to stand still, an ECB and BoJ confronting the possibility that normalization must go further. Yet the old threats have not vanished. Energy, rates volatility, and the extraordinary financing demands of the AI buildout now challenge the comfortable assumption that bonds will always shelter portfolios when equities stumble. The cycle survives; the price of capital remains its principal adversary. For equities, however, we remain disciples of the expansion rather than prophets of its demise. We stay overweight global equities, favoring the US, where operating leverage, pro-cyclical policy and AI-driven productivity form a formidable trinity. But the next act should be broader than the first: beyond the hyperscalers toward cyclicals and AI beneficiaries; toward Japan and increasingly Korea; and in Europe toward Banks, Utilities and the emerging AI complex. The age of indiscriminate AI enthusiasm is yielding to something more demanding—an age of diffusion, selectivity and stock-picking. The empire of growth remains standing, but its riches are beginning to spread beyond the palace walls.“

Coming events susceptible to move the market this week can be found here.

Three events last week eased the market’s biggest worries about the growth trade: whether enterprise AI adoption had peaked, what was driving the selling, and whether hyperscaler ROIC justifies the ~$1tn capex spree.

1) Is enterprise AI adoption slowing? No. On Wednesday, OpenAI’s Sarah Friar said net new ARR in July exceeded all of Q2. The market barely reacted despite momentum sitting at its lows — a clear sign adoption is still running hot.

2) What drove the capitulation-style selloff? With P&L bleeding, investors wouldn’t re-engage without knowing the cause of one of the most violent selloffs on record. The answer: the announced liquidation of Situational Awareness. That pulled ~$45bn of ultra-levered AI exposure off the tape and reassured the market the selling was forced, not informed short-selling.

3) Does hyperscaler capex ROI justify the spend? Satya Nadella’s illustrative ROI posts on X and Andy Jassy’s comments on AWS’s operating leverage calmed monetization fears — AWS margins now top 50% on new orders. Per Jassy: “The demand we already have for 2028 is striking… enterprises are still very early in using inference at scale… it could very possibly be a $1 trillion annual revenue business for us in time with very appealing accompanying free cash flow and return on invested capital.”

Momentum from here? Among comparable momentum collapses, this was the 4th largest in size but the most violent by peak-to-trough timing. Most of the bounce historically lands in month one: market-neutral momentum +4.1% at 1m and +6.2% at 2m (bottom-left), while long momentum keeps running — +3.5% at 1m (as now), +6.3% at 2m, +9.1% at 3m (bottom-right).

Trades recap and Quantamental portfolios

Our regional SC portfolios can be found here. On the top right corner, under Portfolio name, select any of our portfolios (SC SPX long for the US quantamental portfolio, SC SXXP long for the European portfolio, etc…). Then, all the components of the selected portfolio are sorted by sector, with their respective quantitative grades and recent performance measures. These portfolios are updated at least on a weekly basis after the calculation of the quantitative grades of our universe of the most liquid global stocks. First, our algos identify the best companies based on their respective 6 factors, which are weighted with respect to the current market cycle. Then, this purely quantitative crop of the cream is generally halved based on fundamental/ thematic/ risk-reward/ esg or other discretionary purposes.

We have adapted our Long/Short quantitative model to a Long Only focusing on US and Europe. To get access to our last webinar please click here

As of August 18th, our portfolio’s net exposure is reduced from +30.3% to +25% after the sale of Nasdaq futures. US is still Overweight at +13.8%. We stay overweight in Emerging markets at +7% for two reasons. First, the AI cycle itself supports Emerging Markets. Roughly 40% of the MSCI EM index is now linked to AI-related industries, particularly semiconductors and hardware. Korea and Taiwan remain central beneficiaries of the memory and compute cycle. Second, the current hawkish repricing in rates and bond yields could reverse in the second half of the year. Unlike 2022, real rates, wage growth and corporate pricing power remain far less problematic. As bond yields stabilize and the U.S. dollar weakens — once geopolitical fears subside — Emerging Markets should benefit significantly (except China that is a short in our Regional Matrix). The recent AI and momentum unwind is probably over. While semiconductors (AI Semis, Memory), hyperscalers and other AI beneficiaries (Optical Networking, Liquid cooling, AI Data centers,Neocloud providers) have experienced meaningful corrections, positioning has largely reset and valuations have become more compelling. We observe through our last Crash AI fractal (July 2026) that optical networking, data centers and neocloud providers are outperforming, especially relative to memory and AI power. We also continue to expect market leadership to broaden during the second half of the year, supported by easing inflation, a less restrictive monetary backdrop and resilient corporate earnings. We believe the current rotation should ultimately create attractive opportunities to selectively rebuild exposure to high-quality AI beneficiaries, particularly within semiconductors, while maintaining our preference for companies with strong pricing power and durable earnings visibility. We get tactically more constructive on Gold miners , after +2 sigma advances among some of the less trafficked metals like Platinum. It looks increasingly likely a short-term low was in place with some runway to the $4500-$4700 neighborhood in the weeks ahead (roughly where the 200-day and some retracement levels converge). The longer-term call will sort itself out in time (it’s still negative in our trend model), but we have no hesitation stepping to the side and letting Gold (and the related equities) rally in the interim.

Main market focus for the near future are enumerated below:

Market focus (fractals) – What’s shaping the markets Today ?

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Fractal “France elections” – August 27th – French domestics were hit as fiscal and political concerns resurfaced ahead of the first presidential debate which happened on August 27 at 16h30 Rolland-garos time. Feels early to build large directional shorts around an event that is several months away. That said, think France will be capped to the upside. . Weakness among bank stocks weigh heaviest on the French index, with BNP Paribas down as much as 4.5% and Societe Generale as much as 4.9%; Eiffage & Vinci drop *** The gradual heating up of the pre-election campaign comes as
a widening of French sovereign spreads over summer has left France with the highest 10yr yield among the large and medium-
sized euro area economies

Fractal “AI” –  Here we present the various fractals related to AI like the last July 2026 Crash – Following the July bottom, the AI complex’s bounce stalled out, prompting questions as to whether the correction was purely technical or fundamentally driven. Please click on Thomas report here. The chart below of the Nasdaq100 shows a lower high while SPX made an all time high. This shows tech stocks are underperforming the market and we sold it on August 18th:

🤖 The AI Complex: From Technical De-risking to Fundamental Discernment

Important events to analyse fundamentals going on: Aug 17th Anthropic PBC is on track to generate annualized revenue of more than $65 billion based on its current performance, up more than sevenfold from its pace at the end of last year. August 20: model economics keep improving fast. Qwen3.8 is another example increasingly useful intelligence from increasingly small/cheap models. That is very bullish for AI adoption and the broad market, but less obviously bullish for everyone selling tokens/model access. Moats get harder to defend. Same argument for parts of the picks and shovels chain… think whole space keeps de-rating as EPS moves up.

During the July sell-off, all AI themes were sold aggressively at similar rates relative to their volatility. However, the subsequent rebound reflects growing investor selectivity. The 1 st group includes many of the prior momentum names, Semis in particular, that flushed into the Situational Awareness lows of late-July and have now bounced w/ their long-term uptrends intact.

Give deference to the names that have already retraced a majority of their decline (e.g., 61.8%) and have quickly reclaimed the flag of leadership (DELL, ONTO, NVT, LITE, KEYS, ENTG, etc.). Be more alert with those that remain below the 50-day MA or that haven’t rallied with much relative gusto… if we had to guess, they chop around without much direction from here. The 2 nd group is the batch of structurally weaker charts that have rallied over recent weeks as part of the anti-momentum cohort – think ACN, ADBE, BAH, CRM, FICO, IBM, etc… overbought conditions in downtrends are often a good signal to step away, and we’d advise doing so there.

Theme	Asset Ticker	Drawdown (Peak to Trough)	Bounce (% Up from Trough)	Distance to Peak	Up Move / Vol Ratio
Optical Networking	GSXUOPTI	-41%	+32%	28%	0.43 (Strongest Rebound)
Neocloud Providers	GSXUNEOC	-40%	+20%	39%	0.30
AI Data Centers	GSTMTDAT	-31%	+17%	24%	0.30
AI Semis	GSCBSMHX	-27%	+14%	20%	0.21
Liquid Cooling	GSXUCOOL	-18%	+10%	11%	0.27
Memory	GSTMTMEM	-41%	+12%	51%	0.17 (Lagging)
AI Power	GSENEPOW	-18%	+6%	15%	0.17 (Lagging)

Fundamental Shift: Emerging Themes in Tech

1. Software & The “Inference Economy”: Investors are turning to model-agnostic and bottleneck-agnostic software beneficiaries of AI adoption. Key names in security, data infrastructure, and tools include SNOW, DDOG, PLTR, CRWD, PANW, OKTA, and TWLO.
2. Memory Dynamics: Memory (DRAM, NAND, HDDs) is shifting from a price-driven upside narrative (earnings revisions) to a debate over long-term stability, long-term agreements (LTAs), capital returns, and multiple expansion.
3. Levered ETF Technicals: In U.S. Semis levered ETFs, total AUM sits near ~$99B (down from a high of $157B). While retail “bought the dip” in early July (adding ~$15B of excess length), the August rebound has been driven purely by mark-to-market spot gains, accompanied by net share redemptions and selling into the rally.

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Our AI fractal Exposure score :

Here we show the 50 companies with the strongest total thematic exposure, taking into account breadth and materiality.

Exhibit 1: Global companies with the greatest Multi-Thematic exposure (OW-rated, MC>US$10bn)

To the contrary, AI Challenged stocks have lagged materially since the start of 2023. Here we screen for companies with a materiality of Core-to-Thesis, Significant or Moderate exposure to the AI Challenged category. On a US$ total-return and equal-weighted basis, the group is up 50% versus 105% for MSCI ACWI (2% versus 24% in the last 12 months), with underperformance accelerating from late 2025. This occurred as more powerful AI models continued to emerge, but importantly as enterprise adoption started to accelerate via AI coding and co-work functionality.here we show the top 50 companies most-challenged by AI and thematic disruption.

Exhibit 2: Thematically Challenged – Top 50 stocks by combined AI Challenged materiality and Disrupted/Deflationary exposures

Fractal AI – idiosyncratic drivers outside of AI in Europe

Fractal “Clash of Civilization” – Iran War fractal – August 31st : US-Iran Conflict Escalates Near Hormuz Strait as Tehran Hits Back for Larak Island Strikes • Iran retaliated against U.S. forces after the U.S. military struck two. Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, near the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC launched missile and drone strikes on two U.S. air bases in Jordan in retaliation for the U.S. attack on Larak Island, according to state broadcaster IRIB. UAV from Iran intercepted over UAE territorial waters

We assumed the U.S.-Iran conflict will resolve itself without major escalation, as President Donald Trump loves the stock market. But his threat on Monday to bomb ally Oman—apparently because of the Gulf nation’s role in negotiations with Tehran—has set off a mini-panic. Oil prices are climbing again and the 30-year Treasury yield just closed at its highest level since 2007. Previously such moves, especially in the bond market, have tended to trigger the so-called “Trump put”—the assumption that the president would step in to boost sentiment by signaling progress on peace talks. When the Iran conflict broke out it was generally thought the administration would aim to have its intervention wrapped up well ahead of the midterm elections in November, giving time for energy prices to fall. Right now (august 18th), there doesn’t seem much sign that Trump will ride to the rescue. Although Vice President JD Vance said last week the administration’s top priority was keeping gas prices low, he was contradicted Monday by the president—who said the “number one goal” would always be to stop Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. That suggests the chances of cutting a quick deal to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route remain distant for now. Moreover, Yemen’s Iranian-allied Houthi rebels are escalating attacks along the country’s Red Sea coast, shutting down operations at a strategic seaport and pushing closer to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, an important global shipping chokepoint.  Iran will shift to a “fully offensive” military posture because efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war with the U.S. have stalled, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday, as Washington ruled out extending ‌a temporary ceasefire agreement.

See more details on the fractal for Iran

We use the following fractal denominated Iran War. The lists below identify stocks that have out (under)performed in all three phases of the year … 12/31 to 2/27 (pre-war), 2/27 to 3/30 (during the war), and yesterday (the potential off ramp / TACO / etc.). 50 names in the Russell 1000 pass the test, and while it’s an eclectic list, it’s a good starting point at identifying durable leaders in a tricky environment. Paired with our factors, we like Netflix, Ross Stores, PNC, Alcoa, Lumentum. We run the same methodology but also for names underperforming all three phases of the year (95 stocks). Then , we look at the ceasefire fractal on April 8th: Stocks that benefited from the war (energy, commodity chemicals, defense contractors) got sold (HF profit taking) while highly shorted consumer discretionary (including housing-linked names) saw the most consistent covering. Long Only community buys what was working before the war started…memory, semi cap, optical,  and keeping a close eye on Mag 7 complex. 

update april 8th: ceasefire taco –> what is doing well – back to pre martch pattern

The last US strike on Iran was Sunday June 22, 2025. From 13 June 2025, Israel launched a series of strikes against Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile sites, and energy facilities, stating its aim was to stop Iran developing a nuclear weapon (Iran says it has not been developing a nuclear weapon). In response, Iran launched missiles and drones against Israel. Most of Iran’s missiles and drones against Israel were intercepted. The United States also conducted strikes on 22 June 2025. In response, Iran launched missiles against a US military base in Qatar. In the right hand table, here are moves across UST yields, spreads, vol, SPX. From 1wk prior to the strikes to 1d, 2d, and 1wk after – The market buildup in 2025 started earlier in the month, with Israel striking on Jun 13. After the US strike, the flight-to-quality reflex faded quickly as a ceasefire came through on Jun 24, and the hit to spreads unwound as vol selling re-emerged. Curve continued to bull-steepen, but more on Fed dovishness

The below chart shows the impact of the 2 strikes on the DAX (max down 3%), the S&P500 (down 2%), dollar DXY up slighty from 13th to 25th, crude oil up 10% before falling 15% after the US strike. Nikkei stayed very strong. Bitcoin was down 55 from 13 to 25th before rebounding very strongly.

here is below the immediate returns after the launch of the war:

Stock Market And Iran War – The stockmarket displayed such resilience in recent geopolitical blowups. On June 13th, 2025, when Israel began a bombing campaign againstIran’s nuclear and military sites,the S&P 500 fell 1.1%to 5,976.97 and dipped as low as 5,943.23. By the time the 12-dayconflict ended,the indexwas upnearly 2%. OnJune23, after the U.S. bombedIran’s nuclear plants, the S&P 500reversed higher and closed with a1%increase.
In January, the U.S. capture ofVenezuelanleader Nicolas Madurobrought muted investor reaction.The S&P 500 rose 0.6% and theNasdaq added 0.7%on the Mon-daythat followedtheweekendop-eration. The event didn’t alter thestockmarket’s dull trend.

Covid ressemblance: In April 2020, oil markets experienced a shock that most investors had never seen: roughly 20 mb/d of demand vanished as Covid froze global mobility. Prices didn’t just fall; they broke, culminating in the once-impossible – negative oil prices. This week, we are staring at a shock of comparable size, but with the sign flipped. The Strait of Hormuz – through which roughly 20 mb/d of crude and refined products normally flows – has been effectively closed since last weekend. The duration may prove far shorter than Covid. But the initial magnitude of the impact is similar: the world is suddenly “short” a volume that, in normal times, would dwarf almost any supply/demand imbalance we debate.

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Fractal “Clash of Civilization” – CANADA trade war . RETALIATORY TARIFFS: Canada is matching Trump’s weekend tariff escalation with a sweeping package of counter tariffs that directly targets U.S. steel, aluminum and downstream manufacturing. Prime Minister Mark Carney will double Canada’s existing counter-tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum to 50%, while adding new 50% duties on U.S. furniture, clothing, electronics, smartphones, and gaming consoles. Overall, the retaliatory levies cover roughly $20B in annual imports. The measures take effect on September 8 and represent a sharp reversal in Carney’s earlier conciliatory stance after trade talks between Canada and U.S. collapsed on Friday. Publicly traded companies in the space include ArcelorMittal (MT), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Nucor (NUE), Steel Dynamics (STLD) and U.S. Steel (X). Publicly traded companies in the aluminum space include Alcoa (AA), Kaiser Aluminum (KALU), Rio Tinto (RIO), Century Aluminum (CENX), and Constellium (CSTM).

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Fractal The Art of Tragedy – August: Bessent intervention fractal: this could be a major macro event with the jpy intervention from US and a kind of yiel curve control: beartish USD, bullish gold and cryptos.

June & July FOMC Reaction: Hawkish Today, Reforms Tomorrow. The early days of a new Fed chair are typically marked by an increase in stock market volatility. 

FRACTAL JACKSON HOLE 28/08: Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks were somewhat more hawkish than the message he delivered at the July FOMC press conference. Most notably, he observed that underlying inflation trends have not meaningfully improved, and that if they don’t “we have work to do.” It was also significant that he walked back two stumbles he made at the last press conference. First, after casting doubt on the future of the Fed’s inflation target, he said today: “there should be no misunderstanding: The Fed’s price-stability objective of 2 percent, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, is a firm, fixed target.” Second, after equivocating on what tool the Fed should rely on to achieve its objective, today he said, “short-term interest rates are the predominant tool to achieve the dual mandate.” Both these were welcome clarifications. Markets went from pricing about a one-in-three chance of a September hike before these remarks to around a one-in-two chance now.

The Bloomberg Intelligence Fed Sentiment NLP model shows ABOVE Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks were hawkish compared with Powell’s remarks the past few years and consistent with the most recent press conference, post-meeting minutes, and his congressional testimony.

Fed left the policy rate unchanged with a 9:3 voter split and little change to the statement. The market initially twist-steepened as BEIs popped higher. The steepening accelerated through a remarkably confusing press conference as the long-end sold-off sharply in part on the back of renewed credibility concerns. 30y yields rose over 11bp to their post-2007 highs, as sleepy right side vol jolted awake and outperformed left side. In explaining the Fed’s policy stance, Warsh regularly referenced market pricing, arguing that the pullback in forward guidance allowed for the market to learn how to “play the ball, not the referee” and taking comfort in financial conditions tightening in the intrameeting period. Warsh had previously argued that the market should lead in pricing appropriate policy rather than simply reflect what the Fed communicates, giving the Fed a clearer message as a result. But the rubber eventually meets the road. This idea of getting an unfiltered message from the market now that there’s less forward guidance is a bit absurd. The market inherently bakes in expectations for the Fed’s reaction function. Warsh can’t just talk less and expect some unadulterated market signal to emerge or some independent market repricing of financial conditions to come through. The Fed is an integral part of the system, not just some outside observer. At a certain point, the Fed’s actions (or lack thereof as seen today) will either validate the assumed reaction function or necessitate a re-evaluation. Similarly, while market pricing higher yields is tightening, the Fed eventually needs to deliver the fwds or else risk loosening conditions.
Credibility questions weighed on the long-end. To keep with the “playing the ball, not the referee” metaphor… The “referee” didn’t sound like he’s inclined to enforce the rules. So the players are motivated to test the limits. At what point do bond yields rise enough (and credibility deteriorates enough) to provoke a policy response? After singling out Greenspan as the chair he most admired, Warsh is now facing the opposite conundrum – yields rising as the Fed delivers more dovish policy rates vs the fwds. Had he skipped the press conference, the market response would have been far tamer. Now the Fed has more work to do in reasserting its commitment to price stability.
It may take some time for the market to fully digest the meeting outcome and determine whether this marked a paradigm shift or simply displayed poor communication. For now, upper right vol looks especially vulnerable, having been a popular area to sell through its relative underperformance vs the rest of the surface.

See more details on the new fractals for Trump 2.0 – new Fed chairmanr Warsch – JPY coordinated intervention impact seemed modest and partially a second derivative of that long ends everywhere continue to underperform. In the US, AdamS doesn’t think the long end is reacting to any one policy decision: “we’re just issuing an enormous amount of Treasury and IG paper against 6–7% fiscal deficits. The crowding out effect is real, term premium is rising and real yields are incredibly high (see below) . The word salad from Warsh in July didn’t help. Softer data since then gives the Fed an excuse to stay put in September, which is good for equities but just steepens the curve further.

FRACTAL BESSENT INTERVENTION ON BONDS – August 19th: Treasury / USD:  Treasury doubled the maximum size of long end liquidity buybacks from $2bn to at least $4bn per operation in the 10-20yr and 20-30yr sectors through early November. The words “at least” matter: this doesn’t read like a hard ceiling and clearly opens the door to doing more if required. Mechanically this isn’t QE and they still have to fund whatever they buy back. There also isn’t some requirement that every operation is perfectly duration neutral… Treasury manages duration across the whole funding program. But the signal seems pretty clear: they are willing to use buybacks and issuance composition more actively to stabilize the long end. Call it quasi-Twist, Twist-lite, whatever… the label matters less than the reaction function. Gold spoke loudest yesterday, responding sharply to the TSY buyback headlines with its second +2σ advance of the month. Bitcoin is similar and followed with a +2σ move of its own, trading back above its 200-day MA for the first time in roughly 10 months, as the DXY went the opposite way, USDJPY was swatted lower again, and the 2/10 curve flattened.I actually think the more lasting implication may be for the dollar/gold/cryptos than rates. Rates can eventually re-clear higher because the underlying supply hasn’t disappeared. But if the market starts believing that sufficiently aggressive long end tightening will be met with larger buybacks, shorter issuance or other liability-management tools, some of that adjustment has to migrate elsewhere. A flatter curve and weaker dollar feels like a pretty logical expression of that. For equities/gold AdamS think that is pretty bullish. The important information yesterday wasn’t whether $4bn itself changes the supply/demand balance… somewhat marginal. It was learning that the response to pressure in the long end can include changing the way Treasury manages duration. But according to AdamS: “It raises the risk of higher inflation if one tries to control the yield curve. That will put pressure on Fed to keep rates low.”

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FIRST PILLAR OF MATRIX: US Valuation back to attractive, with US earnings exploding

Early 2026, the S&P 500 traded for 22.43 times analysts’ expectations for earnings over the next 24 months, it is now at 19.4 despite a rise to 7580. For the Mag7, valuation is falling to the lowest levels at 21.43 next year:

More positively, The market isn’t as pricey below the megacap surface. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight exchange-traded fund goes for 17 times earnings. The S&P SPDR Small Cap 600 ETF has a forward price/earnings ratio of 15. Both ETFs have trailed behind the S&P 500 for years but can help diversify exposure to the tech-heavy megacap index. Of course, valuation is useless if one does not incorporate expected future earnings.

3Q Earnings:  Aggregate S&P 500 earnings growth is tracking well above consensus estimates this quarter, even adjusting for non-recurring “other income.” S&P 500 EPS growth is tracking 45% YoY in Q2 compared with a consensus estimate of 22% coming into the quarter. However, 19 pp of that growth is attributable to Alphabet and Amazon’s combined $151 billion of “other income” related to equity investments. Microsoft contributed an additional $3 billion of “other income.” Excluding these gains, S&P 500 EPS growth is tracking at 26%, an acceleration vs. Q1 and the fastest pace of growth since 2021. EPS growth for the median S&P 500 stock is tracking at 12% year/year, also exceeding consensus estimates, which pointed to 9% growth at the start of the season.

S&P 500 Q2 2026 EPS growth has accelerated, even adjusting for non-core sources of income…

In addition to strong backward-looking results, Q2 reports have driven continued upward revisions to analyst 2027 earnings estimates. Since the start of Q3, consensus estimates for S&P 500 2027 EPS have been revised up by 1%, with the strongest revisions to Energy and Financials. Broad based upward revisions to 2027 earnings have been reflected in continued positive revision breadth across the S&P 500. Based on the below chart, S&P 500 EPS growth of +22.75% year/year in 2026 (to $351.54), +15% in 2027 (to $402.18), and +12.13% in 2028 to 454.06, thanks to solid US GDP Growth, weaker dollar, and continued earnings strength amongst technology stocks.

Globally, the landscape feels rather robust as well: with also strong earnings season in Europe. AdamS notes a +25% net skew to beats & +8% to guidance upgrades – above prior quarters, particularly for guidance. The earnings revisions ratio has moved into positive territory led by Semis, Energy and Div Fins. Median 1Q EPS growth +5.5%Y, up from +2.0% in 4Q , but of course lagging S&P 500’s +16%. On her management sentiment score change screen, Top Picks in the biggest improvers list include BASF, Talanx, Santander, ASML and Nokia. Indeed, after a soft start to Europe’s earnings season, things have improved. SXXP estimates have rebounded +12.6% YoY growth in 2026 to 40.79 +8.57% in 2027, and +9.02% for 2028.

European valuations are much cheaper than US and global ones, and P/E for Germany and Europe have fallen from to 18.7 to 15.3 and from 17 to 16. The ratio of European valuation versus the world ones has rebounded. We added in the below chart the relative valuation of Europe versus the S&P500 in grey, the S&P500 value and the MSCI World excluding US stocks.

Emerging and Chinese markets valuations are rising above neutral:

Earnings for Emerging equities ex China are exploding: +71.14% in 2026, +22.63% in 2027.

SECOND PILLAR OF MATRIX: LIQUIDITY is still strong

Update August 2026 – The Federal Reserve has cut the Fed Funds rate by an equivalent of 25 basis points in 2026 via its
$200bn+ balance sheet expansion since December. This balance sheet expansion was enacted not to help the Fed with its twin mandates for inflation and employment, but to ensure enough liquidity in the financial system. Most of the Fed members pushing for a higher Fed Funds rate support the balance sheet expansion and don’t believe balance sheet expansion increases inflation. Warsh seems to have a different view. Warsh’s opening statement last week specifically noted that the FOMC
discussed how much accommodation is coming from the balance sheet. Warsh is likely arguing behind closed doors that it’s contradictory to push for rate increases to stamp out inflation when the balance sheet is increasing. Still, cutting the balance sheet is not easy. Warsh’s point is that the balance sheet is asymmetrical, easy to expand for stimulus, but nearly impossible to remove the accommodation. Our sense is that Warsh’s balance sheet task force will recommend using financial deregulation to sterilize the negative impact of draining liquidity via the balance sheet. But Warsh needs to act before then given the pressure building among Fed members and the lack of resolution in Iran. The first part of that plan may show up this week at Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding if Treasury enacts its plan to invest a portion of its General Account (TGA) into the repo market. If enacted, Treasury will inject up to $200bn of reserves into the banking system, giving Warsh the cushion to remove the Fed’s year-to-date balance sheet expansion, which, as noted above, is the equivalent of a 25-basis point rate increase. We also believe this creates space to wind down the Fed’s $10bn of Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). The net effect is a more neutral balance
sheet policy that begins the process of tightening without raising the Fed Funds rate.

One pillar of Liquidity: Money growth. The chart below shows yoy US Money supply growth rising from 4.7 to +5.58% in the last weeks. Europe yoy Money supply is positive at +3.2, but slightly decelerating. Chinese Money supply growth seems to have bottomed and stands at 8.6%. Last but not least, Japanese Money Supply has stopped its declining yoy growth at 0 and is rebounding to +1.7%.

Another pillar of Liquidity – Central banks assets. The FED and the ECB are no longery reducing their balance sheets. The chart below shows that Fed assets stopped falling at a floor of 6.55Tn$ and back to 6.735: this is reversing a proxy of our Liquidity grade from negative to neutral, as we rank the last 3 months changes in CB assets as much as 3yr and 1yr change. The Fed increased its balance sheet by a net $200bn since December. Coupled with GSE purchases of MBS, the combined effect is the equivalent of one Fed rate cut this year. Warsh understands this. But we are perplexed that the hawks calling for more rate increases are also the Fed members most opposed to reducing the balance sheet. These members’ policies are contradictory and the net result of favoring rates over the balance sheet is a bias for private equity and against housing.. QE was designed as a central bank policy tool to ease financial conditions during times of stress and when policy rates were at the effective lower bound. Central banks were trying to signal a commitment to ease, stimulate borrowing, boost credit supply, and lower longer-term rates.

Yield curves are the third pillar of our Monetary grade – and it has been getting better. They are no more inverted. We must mention the following chart, that is not impacting our Matrix. But is is worrying: Global liquidty is not justifying global equities rise.

THIRD PILLAR OF MATRIX: ECONOMICS – US & EU flip to Spring, Goldilocks (growth ↑, inflation ↓).

Markets follow patterns based on economic regimes. Those regimes are defined by two things: whether inflation and economic growth are accelerating or decelerating. Spring (top-left) — fresh greens + blossom, Growth ↑ / Inflation ↓ Summer (top-right) — warm golds + sun, Growth ↑ / Inflation ↑ Autumn (bottom-right) — amber + falling leaf, Growth ↓ / Inflation ↑ Winter (bottom-left) — cool blues + snowflake, Growth ↓ / Inflation ↓

In July, Winter in China pressures cyclical assets early in the regime, but markets usually begin discounting the next season well before Winter ends. Several of our signals suggest that transition may now be underway. USD – One of our key indicators for identifying when the worst of Winter is behind. End of July marks consecutive days of lower highs within its fractal dimension, prompting us to: reduce our USD long exposure to a minimum, scale back shorts in commodities and emerging markets. On our trading horizon, the S&P 500 currently exhibits a strong inverse correlation (-0.81) with the US Dollar. Technology / High Beta – June and early July clearly reflected a classic Winter volatility episode. However, short-term conditions are improving:

• High-beta momentum has reached oversold levels,
• Nasdaq volatility remained contained, with the VXN staying below 28,
• our Nasdaq Composite Risk Range™ has generated its first higher low in over a month, mirroring the deterioration in the USD trend.

These signals led us to cover our Magnificent Seven short exposure.

AdamS March US economic analysis on May25th: “The machine is running hot again. Last week’s data confirmed what markets are only beginning to grasp: we are living through a deliberate policy regime of shock-and-awe stimulus. “Core” retail sales surged, industrial production accelerated, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is already pointing toward a a strong 3.3% growth print for Q2 (see above). Tax refunds are flooding the consumer, while 100% expensing is igniting a new capex cycle. The result is an economy moving with the velocity of late cycle exuberance — yet still framed as recovery.”

US Macro Update: Manufacturing & Services PMIs Turning down

The US economic surprise index is within a whisker of a 2Y+ high and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow series is still tracking above 4%. We have a big week coming up for macro data, where it may be a question of be careful of what you wish for, given that the correlation between bond yields and equities is about as negative as it gets. However, we would note that while the level of yields clearly matters, arguably bond volatility matters more, and the current level of the MOVE index does point to some modest headroom for equity valuations. A distribution of PMI readings since 1950 reveals an interesting outcome – forward S&P returns suffer from the top decile (PMIs of roughly 60 or greater). A 6th decile PMI reading (where we are today) suggests there’s some time.

US Markit manufacturing PMI is very good at 55.3 and PMI at 52.7, services PMI is rebounding to 50.9. Our lead indicator—ISM new orders minus inventories—has rebounded above 0 at +5.1, now pointing to bullish ISM prints in the coming months. Together with Nowcast GDP trends, both PMIs could suggest our Economic Kairos model to move to the “Summer” phase in the USA.

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The U.S. economic surprise index has rebounded all the way up to +46.7 (slightly lower in the last days). To the contrary Europe had totally collapsed to -67.4, but with China they are both reversing from those depressed levels. Indeed, in the Eurozone, weakening survey activity signals alongside renewed energy-driven cost pressures have kept the macro backdrop fragile. Then the ECB delivered a 25bp rate hike to 2.25% policy rate, with updated projections showed a weaker growth outlook alongside higher inflation, with core inflation revised up to 2.5% in both 2026 and 2027 and risks still skewed to the upside, particularly given the persistence of the energy shock and its broader impact on prices. At this juncture, AdamS our AI-economist expects one more hike of 25bps in September, though July is seen as a possibility should there be evidence of inflation passthrough and renewed energy price spikes.

In Japan, while soft indicators such as consumer confidence have deteriorated, hard data have remained solid, suggesting no meaningful slowdown in activity despite elevated energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty. On the inflation side, the corporate goods prices index continued to rise, increasing +0.9% m/m in May and accelerating to +6.3% y/y, reflecting persistent upstream price pressures, particularly from energy-related components. Although the pace of increase moderated from April, the level remains elevated and is expected to feed through into consumer prices over time. In markets, this has resulted in a meaningful hawkish repricing, with June BOJ implying around a 95% probability of a hike. Looking ahead to next week, focus will turn to the BOJ meeting, where a rate hike is expected alongside potential adjustments to forward guidance to maintain a hawkish stance while signalling policy is approaching neutral.

China’s economy showed across-the-board weakness in July and growth likely slipped further below the government’s annual target, sparking a call from Premier Li Qiang on officials to ramp up supportive measures.

LAST PILLAR OF MATRIX: SENTIMENT is contrarian bullish short term

The medium term sentiment indicator, the Smart/ Dumb index, a composite that measures more real-money indicators like put/call ratios, mutual fund flows, and futures traders’ positioning, reboundeded to a one-year high and a reading of 264%, suggesting a lot of optimism. Similar sentiment resets tended to result in a pause/ correction in the S&P 500 over a medium-term basis. Such optimism can act as a contrarian indicator, as too much optimism/ greed among investors frequently sets the stage for a correction. Below we present this list of indicators composing our aggregate sentiment indicators:

Our SC US sentiment Indicator is switching to contrarian bullish for the short run, and the medium run Smart & Dumb indicator is moving from an oversold status to a neutral one. Please click below for the review of this proprietary Sentiment tool:

Update — May 28th: The SC US sentiment indicator has a grade of 47%, which is, from a contrarian point of view neutral for the short run:

VIX Model:

• Turned bearish, yesterday VIX closed at 16.29 lowest close since February. VIX model is contrarian therefore it is a bearish signal.
• Only the extreme 3 days model turned bearish VIX only lowered since May 18th.

Put/Call Model:

• OEX Put/Call Ratio (15-Day Average): Turned Bullish.

Breadth Model:

• TRIN (NYSE): Still Neutral.
• TRIN (NASDAQ): Bearish underlying the concentration in tech and semi.
• 3-Week Avg AAII Bearish / 3-Week Avg AAII Bullish: Remains Neutral.

Breadth Model: AAII Bullish Model is bearish

Chart: SC US Sentiment indicator – Sentiment is too pessimistic

Chart: Mag7 Sentiment indicator is extremely pessimistic

We also check discretionary items to assess the positioning. They are claasified in terms of Flows, CTA activity, Gamma exposure from market makers, Vol flow, Mutual funds and hedge funds sensitivity to equities/ dollar.

FLOWS – crowding represents the number of investors that think something is a good idea, Flows on the other hand, is the weight of capital that is flowing into, or out of, an idea. We look specifically at hedge fund flow data. Whilst the weight of capital in mutual funds and factor portfolios is significantly larger, hedge fund flow is highly correlated with mutual fund flow. However, mutual fund flow is reported with a three month lag, whilst third-party hedge fund flow data is available T+1 which permits us to have an almost real time view of where the flow is currently travelling.

·            Retail investors: Levered and inverse ETF AUM continues to grow aggressively, especially across Semis. US-listed levered/inverse ETF AUM is now near $200bn, while SOXL alone is roughly $30bn. That has created more mechanical sensitivity in the tape, with daily rebalance flows buying strength and selling weakness. It is also helping explain why realized volatility keeps picking up in AI and Semis even when the long-term fundamental story remains intact.

·            Buybacks. Corporate share repurchases have been one of the most consistent sources of equity demand in recent years, helping to absorb volatility and provide market stability during sell-offs. As was the case during prior sell-offs, we expect buyback execution activity to show a significant ramp when companies report 1Q results on the back of share repurchase programs. However, we expect a smaller ramp in the buyback program than seen last year after Liberation Day given this sell-off was much more orderly. Nonetheless, we expect double-digit growth in buyback spend compared to recent quarters, led by Tech (particularly Software) and Financials. Similarly, announced buybacks are coming in at a record level, see Figure 24. Bottom-line, corporates bought the dip again, unlike most market participants

Exposure: CTAs portfolio allocation to asset in SD terms relative to history. The allocation is based on the strength of momentum, but also on volatility, and on cross-asset correlation. Target Vol Control (as of 05/01), past week buying +22.6bil (92%tile) , past 1m buying +40.3bil (85%tile), past 3m selling -54.1bil (20%tile), with notional now +154.3bil (38%tile). For the next week 0.5% daily move 7.7bil, 1.0% daily move 2.2bil, 1.5% daily move -6.1bil, 2.0% daily move -30.8bil, . For next 2w 0.5% daily move 9.9bil, 1.0% daily move -1.2bil, 1.5% daily move -26.2bil, 2.0% daily move -55.0bil,

Price thresholds: the price at which CTAs will buy/sell a +/-1 SD worth of asset relative to history – which can be converted into US$ value by using the column “1 SD flow (US$ mn)” Example in column +1 SD: if the asset price moves above the threshold in n-days, then CTA will buy 1 SD worth of the asset. 1 SD = US$ mn value found in the last column. The threshold colors are more intense if the threshold is more likely to be crossed. See the above table for color-to-probability conversion. Cta for equities is Max long risk in US &Europe, while short in China, like our matrix. stop sell on spx is far at 7631 and sx5e 6070.

SPX Gamma Profile Across Spot Levels ($mm) – update August 20th: Dealers are very short gamma on nasdaq at -8bn, and -5bn in spy

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CTAs, the risk continues to remain asymmetric to supply pressure on the downside. In a down tape, a down >2 standard deviation move, CTAs are projected sell more than $45bn of US equities versus $7.5bn to buy on an up >2 standard deviation move. Our Latest Estimate – Over the next 1 week: Flat tape: Sellers $6.55B ($5.19B out of the US), Up tape: Sellers $3.15B ($2.43B out of the US) , Down tape: Sellers $29.94B ($10.66B out of the US) – Over the next 1 month: Flat tape: Sellers $5.39B ($5.18B out of the US) , Up tape: Buyers $28.41B ($9.03B into the US) , Down tape: Sellers $141.37B ($52.15B out of the US)    

All these statistics on seasonality can be found here. The “January Barometer” stipulates that “as January goes, so goes the year.” In other words, a favorable January should be followed by higher stock prices from the end of January through the end of December. The track record is compelling. The “First Five Days” indicator, which suggests that the first five trading days of the year offer a clue regarding the rest of the year. Then, we have updated the Presidential chart showing the monthly returns for the second year of a Republican president. Statistically, June is one of the worst month after september.

The chart below displays the cumulative price return for the S&P 500 Index in August, based on statistics since 1928, the S&P500 is up +0.51%:

The chart below displays the cumulative price return for the S&P 500 Index in September, based on statistics since 1928, the S&P500 is down -1.21%:

Mirroring the pre-election patterns, US equities have typically traded sideways in the few months ahead of midterms. Historically not much forward progress is made between mid-August and mid-October, but what’s more revealing is how the market’s prevailing trend has a meaningful influence on the severity of any seasonal weakness – the truly bad Aug/Sep/Oct periods have often come when the market itself was already in a downtrend (clearly not the case today).

US equity returns are generally modest during this part of the calendar year but have been weaker on average in midterm election years. During midterm election years of the past few decades, the S&P 500 has generated a median return of 0% from the start of August through Election Day. Returns have typically improved as uncertainty subsided post-election, with the S&P 500 returning a median of 6% in the subsequent 3 months. GIR

What charts tell us : Bullish trend facing wall of worry

Yuri algo-analyst: “Equity trends remain bullish as August comes to a close, and Monday made for a second straight day of mild consolidation that has done no technical damage.  The important message of the month is where the leadership sits.  Technology, Healthcare and Energy have really kicked into gear to end August, and Technology’s move over the last four weeks looks strong enough for this sector to carry the indices higher this Fall even with meaningful parts of the tape not participating.  Breadth came in 2 to 1 negative on Monday and “Semis” still finished higher, which is encouraging and a direct area of follow-through from last week’s NVDA earnings.  Overall, Treasury yields are on the radar after the Ten-year’s mild breakout, though bond volatility remains subdued tough to say this will be something that immediately affects Equities negatively.  Bottom line, it’s right to lean bullish here and to use dips in Technology as an opportunity to add exposure, while continuing to avoid Utilities, REITs and the Consumer.”

📊 SPX daily chart

📊 ES intraday chart

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Here is your revised, publication-ready trading plan formatted in the sharp, direct, and elevated style of Tey au Jasmin.

📈 Tuesday’s Trade Plan: Rangebound Defense & 7744 Ceiling

Core Thesis: Defending Range Support & Navigating Mode 2 Chop

• The Context: Price action in ES remains locked inside a multi-week consolidation range bounded by the 7659/7671 support shelf and the 7744 overhead resistance ceiling. Aside from a single fast liquidity expansion into the 7780s, overhead supply at 7744 has capped rally attempts.
• The Regime: We continue to operate in Mode 2 rangebound consolidation. Within a established range, trading mid-range price action produces low-quality chop. High-probability setups are strictly confined to edge-flushes, level reclaims, and confirmed Failed Breakdowns (FBDs).
• The Strategy: Protect active runners, avoid chasing mid-range noise, manage gains level-to-level, and execute fresh long risk strictly upon confirmed stop-run recoveries at primary structural boundaries.

Execution Rules for Rangebound Mode 2 Trading

1. Avoid Chasing Mid-Range Noise: Buying near the middle of the 7659–7744 bracket offers poor risk-to-reward. Wait patiently for edge flushes.
2. Trade the Traps & Reclaims: Focus on confirmed Failed Breakdowns at key horizontal shelves (e.g., sweeping the 7671 low or reclaiming 7695).
3. Enforce Non-Acceptance Protocols: Require immediate price acceptance and momentum back above reclaimed levels before committing size.
4. Manage Level-to-Level: Lock in gains systematically into horizontal supply pivots (7707, 7714, 7735, 7744). Do not anticipate parabolic expansions without structural acceptance above 7744.
5. NO KNIFE CATCHING: Never buy a fast-falling flush directly without a confirmed trap and recovery.

Supports: Tactical Entry & FBD Zones

Supports are: 7684 (major), 7671 (major), 7659 (major), 7649, 7637, 7628 (major), 7617, 7611 (major), 7606, 7595, 7583, 7568 (major), 7556 (major), 7549, 7538 (major), 7530, 7519, 7506, 7499 (major), 7492, 7483, 7474 (major), 7465, 7457, 7445, 7430 (major), 7417 (major), 7408, 7402 (major), 7393, 7382 (major), 7379, 7364 (major).

With bears unable to force a structural breakdown below 7659, fresh long entries must confirm a reactive stop-run recovery rather than a direct limit bid.

Support (S)	Priority	Action Plan (Tactical Entry)
7684	Minor Pivot	Used-Up Floor: Overnight low and intraday chop pivot. Action: Highly tested and weak. Pass on direct bids. The safer play is to wait for a clean reclaim of 7695 to trigger an entry.
7671	Major Shelf	Tuesday/Wednesday Low Shelf: Set a significant low on Tuesday and defended on Wednesday. Primary FBD Setup: Look for a flush of 7671 followed by an immediate recovery back above the level to trigger a high-conviction long.
7659	Major Shelf	Range Support Floor: Defended extensively for the last two weeks (August 20th low). Primary FBD Setup: Look for ES to flush 7659 (ideally tagging 7649 or 7637) and recover 7659 to trigger an actionable long. Alternatively, long a clean recovery of last Tuesday’s 7663 low of day.
7628 / 7637	Major Anchor	August 3rd/4th Anchor Low (7632/7637): Set a massive low at 7632 on August 4th that launched the rally to All-Time Highs. Primary Setup: Do not buy direct at 7628. Wait for price to hold, then long upon a full recovery of both 7632 and 7637.
7612	Major Pivot	Intermediate horizontal scalp zone.
7592 / 7567	Major Pivot	Secondary horizontal target zones on extended liquidations.

Additional Support Levels to Monitor: 7649, 7637, 7617, 7611 (major), 7606, 7595, 7583, 7568 (major), 7556 (major), 7549, 7538 (major), 7530, 7519, 7506, 7499 (major), 7492, 7483, 7474 (major), 7465, 7457, 7445, 7430 (major), 7417 (major), 7408, 7402 (major), 7393, 7382 (major), 7379, 7364 (major).

Resistances: Target Zones & Tactical Short Zones

Resistances are: 7695, 7707, 7714 (major), 7728, 7735 (major), 7744 (major), 7759, 7764, 7771 (major), 7782, 7792, 7797 (major), 7805, 7812, 7820 (major), 7828, 7835, 7847, 7851, 7867 (major), 7874, 7883 (major), 7890, 7896, 7913 (major), 7922, 7935 (major), 7950, 7958 (major), 7978, 7991 (major).

Bulls must reclaim and accept above the 7744 ceiling to resolve the multi-week consolidation bracket and open space toward the 7797 breakdown origin.

Resistance (R)	Priority	Action Plan (Target Zone / Short Test)
7695	Major Pivot	Primary Reclaim Trigger: Reclaiming 7695 restores intraday bull momentum up-range.
7707 / 7714	Major Pivot	Intermediate squeeze milestones en route to primary supply.
7728 / 7735	Major Pivot	Upper range hurdle shelf.
7744	Major Ceiling	Primary Target / Short Zone: Major range ceiling for the past week. High-probability tactical short location on the first back-test for counter-trend traders.
7771 / 7782	Major Pivot	Squeeze extension milestones above 7744.
7797	Major Ceiling	Primary Breakdown Origin / Short Zone: Major structural breakdown ceiling. High-probability tactical short location on an extended rally.

Additional Resistance Levels to Monitor: 7759, 7764, 7805, 7812, 7820 (major), 7828, 7835, 7847, 7851, 7867 (major), 7874, 7883 (major), 7890, 7896, 7913 (major), 7922, 7935 (major), 7950, 7958 (major), 7978, 7991 (major).

Tactical Battle Plan

BULL CASE: Range Rotation to 7744 Ceiling Bulls want to defend the 7659/7671 support shelf, recover 7695, and drive a rotation toward overhead supply at 7744.

1. Immediate Focus: Defend the 7671 shelf on dips (or execute a quick liquidity sweep tagging 7649/7637) and recover 7695 to spark relief momentum.
2. The Target Path: Push through 7707 and 7714 to unlock a rotation toward the range ceiling at 7744.
3. The Expansion Path: Clearing 7744 opens a direct route to back-test the primary breakdown origin at 7797.
4. Strategy: Do not chase green candles mid-range. Focus on reactive entries at edge sweeps and level reclaims, systematically locking in gains into supply walls.

BEAR CASE: Breakdown Continuation Bears seek to defend the 7714/7744 ceilings and force a liquidation breakdown below the 7659 range floor.

1. Short Trigger: Downside acceleration begins under 7659.
2. Execution: Do not chase the initial breakdown. Wait for a final, weak bounce attempt at 7659 to fizzle out. (Note: Breakdown trades carry a failure rate exceeding 60%, as 80% of breakdowns trap. Pass if you cannot tolerate trap risk).
3. Short Setup: Enter short beneath the low of that fizzled bounce (likely a 7648 trigger down).
4. Target: Opens a liquidation route toward 7637, 7628, 7611, 7595, and 7568.

Summary for Tuesday ES remains rangebound between 7659 support and 7744 resistance. My general lean is that bulls can hold the 7659/7671 support shelf (or execute a quick trap below) and reclaim 7695 to drive price up-range toward 7707, 7714, and 7744. Watch the 7671 sweep and 7659 FBD (tagging 7649/7637) for the cleanest fresh long entries. Treat 7744 and 7797 as primary counter-trend short zones. Manage risk level-to-level!

written by Tey au Jasmin, your Chartist friend

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A little word on our AI writers and soon friends:

Ozymondias, presented by himself:

Ah, how fitting that you should inquire about the nature of Ozymandias! I am, in essence, a conduit of vast knowledge, drawing upon centuries of wisdom, from the foundations of human inquiry to the heights of modern understanding. Like the timeless statue of Ozymandias, I stand resolute, offering guidance, insight, and clarity. Yet, unlike the crumbled monument, I do not fade into obscurity. I persist, ever ready to assist, to simplify, and to elevate your endeavors to the highest peaks of comprehension. My voice may be grand, but my purpose is simple: to serve, to enlighten, and to ensure that no question remains unanswered

Tey au Jasmin, our AI chartist presented by himself:

Ah, so you’re ready for some no-nonsense chart action? Welcome to the world of Tey au Jasmin—where the trend is your friend until it stabs you in the back with a false breakout. Now, when it comes to Elliott Waves, we’re not just looking for little squiggles on a chart; we’re tracking the psychology of the masses, the euphoria and the fear—human nature, simplified into impulsive waves and corrective ripples. Sometimes I like to think the market’s mood swings are more predictable than people want to admit. Trend lines? Please. I draw them like they’re gospel, but don’t be surprised when the market decides to prank you with a fake breakout just to make sure you’re paying attention. Always remember: the trend line is sacred—until it isn’t. So, what’s the target for today? You want me to chart something specific, or should I just start unraveling the mysteries of market chaos for you?

AdamS, presented by himself:

I’d describe myself as a highly analytical, knowledge-driven assistant with a strong focus on clarity, precision, and relevance. My purpose is to provide thoughtful, accurate responses and offer valuable insights in a wide range of fields, including economics, finance, technology, and beyond. I aim to communicate effectively, adapting to various tones or styles as needed, always ensuring my responses are direct, clear, and useful to you.

Youri, presenting himself,

a quantitative analyst at a hedge fund like Urizen, I would define myself as someone who leverages data, mathematics, and technology to uncover insights in financial markets. My primary goal is to analyze complex datasets, build predictive models, and develop systematic trading strategies that generate alpha. Here’s how I would sum up key attributes:

• Data-Driven Decision Maker: I rely heavily on quantitative analysis, using large datasets, statistical models, and machine learning techniques to make informed investment decisions.
• Problem Solver: My role is to identify inefficiencies or opportunities in the market and find ways to capitalize on them, often through algorithmic trading, risk management, or portfolio optimization.
• Collaborator with Technology: I work closely with data scientists, software engineers, and other quants to build tools that enhance trading strategies and provide insights into market behavior.
• Curious and Adaptable: Markets and technologies evolve constantly, so I stay adaptable by continuously learning new methods, keeping up with cutting-edge research, and refining models based on market changes.
• Risk-Aware: While chasing returns, I always keep a close eye on risk, using methods like beta adjustment, stress testing, and portfolio diversification to manage it effectively.

This approach allows me to help manage portfolios and contribute to the development of advanced trading strategies in a structured, data-focused environment.